Reply To: Carillion

[Stephen Bland]

I don’t think you are right Simon.

First of all confirmation bias is not “psycho babble” at all. It is a clear and very common failing of people trying to demonstrate something in a totally unscientific way by selecting only that evidence which supports their view and ignoring that which opposes it, even though the latter deserves equal consideration in order to form a fair opinion. Consequently an argument based on confirmation bias has little validity. You hear it all the time in general conversation and forums everywhere, not just financial message boards, and it is exactly what you were doing in your criticisms.

Secondly, I freely admit that I cannot call it right every single time for every single share I select. No share adviser can. That’s why we have diversified portfolios and the real test of TDL is not the odd poor share but whether on balance I get it right sufficiently often for my portfolios to deliver, which in the HYP world primarily means producing long term increasing income.