HYP1-6

[Stephen Bland]

I don’t normally show past portfolios but do publish an annual review each January of all of them to reveal their performance. However all shares selected in the past, where still existing in any portfolio, are shown in the dividend schedule published with every issue of TDL together with my latest Buy/Hold advice.

[Stephen Lewis]

Somewhat….

you used to include tables for each in the back of each monthly, with current yield as well as latest buy/hold …. current div schedule doesn’t hold quite the same set of information, yield in particular is missing

perhaps adding current yield and portfolio selected in to the div table would cover that off nicely ?

[Stephen Bland]

I don’t intend to change the dividend schedule for a number of reasons, related to my decision last year to cease showing the old portfolios in every issue and the reasons for which were discussed extensively on the old forum – no longer accessible unfortunately. I don’t wish to reopen all those arguments and point out that only an extremely small number and percentage of readers expressed concerns about the change despite my publicising it widely in advance and seeking opinion, both in TDL itself and on the forum.

As mentioned elsewhere on the forum, forecast dividends and yields are available from online sites such as DigitalLook.

Remember that databases like this sometimes have errors and that forecasts in most cases are just estimates by external analysts and will often vary depending on the source used. They can, and often are, shown to be wrong when the actual figures become known so consequently people should not give them too much credence or regard forecasts with an accuracy they just cannot possess.

[Andrew Hopson]

Stephen,

Thanks for your replies. While personally I found it useful to look at the old portfolio figures, I also understand why you removed them.

However, I would like to make one suggestion. Currently, HYP 7 only has three shares, so for anyone looking at a “buy now” start to their HYP, or who wants some help to decide on a new investment or top up, there simply isn’t enough material in either the most recent newsletter or online to help them make that decision. So perhaps you could include the last complete portfolio only (e.g. HYP 6) with the relevant Buy-Hold-Sell ratings and performance figures as an aid for what I imagine is a real problem for a number of investors.

Have enjoyed being a member of this community since HYP 1 – keep up the good work!

Many thanks, Andrew.

[Stephen Bland]

Thanks for the suggestion and in fact I considered doing what you say when HYP6 closed and I commenced HYP7. However for the same reasons that I ceased some time ago showing all the old portfolios, I gave it some thought but came to the conclusion that this should apply also to showing the last one.

I point out that all back issues of TDL are available online in the archives so subscribers can access this information if they want.

But be careful if drawing on old portfolios. I stress that the advice given in a back issue must not be taken as my current view of a share because circumstances change. My latest view on whether a share is a Buy or Hold is valid only in the Dividend Schedule of the latest TDL and each new issue supersedes the previous one. A share can easily move several times over a long period between Buy or Hold as its fortunes and the market fluctuate.

Further, not only do circumstances change, actual shares change too because of corporate activity. Thus several of my previous choices over the years have disappeared due to bids to be replaced by new holdings. Others have altered their character, divested new shares, had rights issues, share splits, cash returns and so on. Even the most recent completed HYP6 to which you refer has one share, SKY, that is in a bid situation and is now a Hold. So a reader using all or part of a previous portfolio to construct an immediate HYP, must do this in conjunction with the Dividend Schedule and my latest advice, sticking only to the Buys.

Additionally, in that case it’s up to them to ensure diversification is not compromised. This is very important, diversification being a fundamental rule of the strategy.

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