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Gold update: commercial real estate canaries have stopped singing

This has been a difficult couple of days for gold. The mainland Chinese economy has been shut for the golden week holiday for the last week and reopened yesterday. The Hong Kong market was open and traders were busy pricing in the potential that China’s government would announce more stimulus news as soon as the holiday ended.

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China’s markets reopen tomorrow… expect fireworks

Five of our positions currently open in our trading portfolio are related to Chinese reflation. The mainland market has been closed for the last week in celebration of the establishment of the Communist Party. It will not open again until tomorrow, 8 October.

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Disinflation incoming

China’s economy is sputtering. The drag from the property market is the big headwind that will need to be addressed to reverse the malaise. Now factory orders are falling and factories are cutting prices to try and stay competitive. That’s deflationary.

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Gold update: $1,000,000,000,000 annual deficits for a decade

I have been an avid reader of Torsten Slok’s economic commentary for a long time. He was the head economist at Deutsche Bank for several years and is now the chief economist at Apollo. He released a data set on Monday which I thought carried some nuggets of information that help to clearly explain why gold has been so firm.

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