This is how I will quit crypto …
24th January 2022 |
“… if you’re going to invest in bitcoin a short-time-horizon is four years a mid-time-horizon is 10 years, the right time horizon is forever.”
This was Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy being interviewed on Bloomberg last week.
I like Saylor. Not just because he “gets” it when it comes to bitcoin, but because he has a wonderful ability to really simplify the reasons as to why bitcoin has an important function in the world’s financial future.
If you ever have a chance to see his interviews (the full interview from Bloomberg you can find here). If you ever have a chance to see him speak longer form, you should.
If after listening to him you still don’t get why the long-term horizon is important, then I’m afraid it might be possible you’re “ngmi” (not gunna make it).
Saylor, via MicroStrategy, also now annually holds a “Bitcoin for Corporations” event. It’s designed to help corporations understand the importance of bitcoin, how it can fit into their balance sheet or treasury management and to provide accurate information rather than overhyped nonsense.
This year the conference is on 1 and 2 February. They keynote speaker is also CEO of Block (formerly Square Inc) and former CEO of Twitter, Jack Dorsey.
You can register for the conference here – just bear in mind it’s a focus for corporations and you do need to register your details (email, phone number, etc) to get access.
But back to Saylor’s original quote and its importance today…
We’ve been running Sam Volkering’s Crypto Network as a part of the Frontier Tech Investor publication only for just over a year now. Our very first edition was on 5 November 2020.
At that time, bitcoin’s price was hovering around $14,500.
As an intro to this additional publication, I wrote in that first issue:
My own journey with crypto started in weird internet forums over a decade ago. It led me to toying with building a bitcoin mining rig, investing and dabbling in and out of bitcoin, the first altcoin boom and bust in 2013 and 2014, the rise and fall and rise and fall and rise and fall of bitcoin and other crypto, and even to advisory positions with cryptocurrency projects and non-crypto projects that are looking into the digital asset industry.
I’ve seen pretty much all of it in crypto. Theft, scams, crazy five-figure-percentage winners and ultimate, complete 100% losers. A decade-long journey that feels like it’s really only just getting started is why I love the crypto space so much.
If you’ve not seen that original issue, go have a look here as it really sums up my long-term view of everything the crypto market stands for.
And in the very short term, just the last year and two months we’ve seen bitcoin skyrocket to almost $70,000 and now peel back to just under $40,000.
That is a big shift backwards, in the short term. But the broader perspective tells us that (still within the short term) it’s also much higher than not that long ago.
I bring this up because it’s very easy to get bogged down in the small stuff, by taking a too short-term view. But with the correct mindset and knowledge, you’ll be just fine.
I will quit after ten years
In that original issue for Sam Volkering’s Crypto Network, I talk about the digitisation of assets. I explain that crypto represents just the start of a world where all assets, be it currency, energy, property, art, collectibles, anything can be traded through online digital markets.
That’s a big idea, a big picture, a long-term roadmap for how our world is developing.
I’ve been around it all for over a decade now… so mid-term, according to Saylor. And when I started in it all, there was nothing like what we see today.
The idea that we’ve come so far in just a short space of time, realistically just the short term is astonishing.
The way I think about it is this…
What we’ve seen over the last decade, considering the tiny resources that have been accessible to the market for most of it, is immense.
If you’ve come to crypto in the last few years, then the foundation, the platform from which we spring forward now is multitudes bigger and stronger than it was in 2011 and 2012 when the earliest iterations of all this began.
That means, what’s coming over the next mid-term period, that takes us into the 2030s, will absolutely rock the world.
Sure, it’s not all going to be smooth sailing. We’re seeing that now with some countries banning it, and others accepting crypto as legal tender. We will see ups, downs, great developments and plenty of attempts that fail.
But this is how things grow, this is how wealth is created, and this is how change happens. And frankly if the only thing we ever paid attention to was the price, then we’d have got nowhere from the first altcoin boom and bust in 2013 and 2014.
Price and value follow progress, scale, usefulness, development and utility. Price and value are arbitrary in the short term when you see the long-term potential of what’s being built today and what’s coming tomorrow.
That’s why when the market occasionally bombs out as it has recently, I urge you to take the situation with a pinch of salt. This is why I continuously tell people your time horizon needs to be long term… well at least “mid-term” according to Saylor.
If we get ten years down the track and we’re exactly where we are now or worse, then I will quit writing about crypto forever. I will not type another single word about it if by 2032 the market isn’t just bigger in terms of scale and adoption, but also price.
I don’t expect I’ll be in any danger of having to do that.
While seeing your capital swing in price lower is not fun, it is also why we issue this advice: use your risk capital, don’t take on debt, and enjoy the swings as much as the knowledge that you’re on the ground floor of a world-changing revolution.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: embrace the volatility, keep an eye on the bigger picture. Know that progress is unstoppable in this space. Further, make sure that, if you enter this space at all, you keep your safety and security as a priority. Have fun while doing so.
Crypto to Know
Below is our “Crypto to Know” list where you’ll find several cryptos that we think you should be taking the time to learn and understand.
They each form an important part of the burgeoning crypto ecosystem.
Several of these cryptos are doing very different things to others.
What’s key is to learn that every crypto has its own use cases, its own guiding principles, and its own particular potential.
Each crypto is to be judged and assessed on its own merits.
Our aim here is to help you understand these cryptos and the wider crypto world.
These aren’t specific recommendations but a guide to help you learn and build your confidence in operating in this space.
We will add more names to this list over time. However, if you’re new to the world of crypto, these are the names where we think you should start your education and learning.
We’ve also added links to each one.
The links are to what we believe, in each case, is the best resource for learning about that crypto.
“Crypto to Know” watchlist
- Bitcoin –it/wiki/Main_Page
- Ethereum – ethereum.org/en/what-is-ethereum
- IOTA – docs.iota.org
- Tezos – https://tezos.com/learn/getting-started/
- Filecoin – docs.filecoin.io
- Cosmos – v1.cosmos.network/intro
- Binance – binance.com/en/about & research.binance.com/en/projects/bnb
- FTX – ftx.com & help.ftx.com/hc/en-us
- Solana – https://docs.solana.com/introduction
- Secret Network – https://scrt.network/about/about-secret-network
Sam Volkering
Editor, Sam Volkering’s Crypto Network
