Your November issue of Small Cap Investigator

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Buy the start-up that’s cracked the code of emission-free gas plants

It’s just a blue cube.

Yet this translucent, pulsating blue cube powers pretty much everything you see around you.

From your toaster to your car to your laptop, simply place the blue cube anywhere in the nearby vicinity and it will be fully charged within seconds.

The cube is incredibly durable and never breaks, not even when it’s dropped on the ground or if a drink is accidentally spilled on it.

Best of all, you don’t even need to plug the cube in – it just sits there and makes power.

This blue cube of energy lasts between 50 years and forever.

But if you ever need more cubes, you can just pick some more up at your local “cube station”.

As a form of energy, it’s close to perfect.

It’s cheap…

It’s limitless…

… and it’s also 100% made up.

The genesis of the blue cube, alas, is not a laboratory working to develop the next big thing in energy generation but a 2015 “news” article from the satirical online newspaper The Onion.

The article is titled “Nation Figured Everything Would Run On Some Kind Of Cubes Of Blue Energy By Now”. It’s brilliant and hilarious, lampooning those who expect technology to have already delivered the perfect form of energy generation.

Here are the opening two paragraphs:

Expressing their disappointment and frustration at the current state of technology, citizens across the nation reported Thursday that they figured everything would run on some sort of cubes of blue energy by now.

Americans of all ages and demographic groups explained to reporters that they thought the cubes would be “basically everywhere you looked at this point,” saying they could not understand why translucent, pulsating blue cubes of energy did not yet exist, and why they were not currently being used to power appliances, lighting, various modes of transportation, and all manner of personal electronics.

As all good satirical articles should, this one struck a chord.

The energy market has long had its fair share of fantasy projects that chased illusionary goals but produced real-life pots of gold.

Certainly, there are some bizarre proposals for energy generation and storage out there that seem to come straight from the pages of a science fiction novel, from the wacky so-called zero-point energy principle which shows that a vacuum caused by oscillation still contains energy, to gravitational batteries that can involve crashing concrete blocks into the ground from 120 metres high several times a day.

Unfortunately, all too often energy fantasies are just that… fantasies.

The truth is, there is no perfect form of energy that can, right now, singularly meet all our needs, all at once, all the time, safely, cleanly and economically. Of the existing forms of power generation, nuclear can be expensive, coal and gas are dirty, while even clean wind and solar rely on the inherently unreliable weather.

This is not to say that energy developments can’t be transformational or mind-boggling, of course.

Who would have thought 15 or so years ago that the US would be forced to abruptly convert its liquefied natural gas import terminals to export facilities as it worked out how to unlock its huge reserves of shale gas, turning the world’s energy markets on their heads in one fell swoop?

Or even that renewables themselves would already have gained such a significant foothold in the UK and elsewhere, helping to increasingly drive coal off the grid?

What’s more, I’m a big believer in the possibilities of fusion power, which is the fundamental energy source of the universe that powers our sun and distant stars.

Where ideas once seemed impossible, or at the very least outlandish, they can in short order become the new norm or status quo.

Carbon capture moving from the energy market fringes

Indeed, this month’s recommendation is a play on an often-overlooked technology that has been around since the 1970s but has mostly been relegated to the fringes of the energy community, but it is now starting to move towards centre ground.

The technology involves catching concentrated industrial carbon emissions at their source, preventing them from entering the atmosphere, and then permanently sequestering the carbon – so-called carbon capture, utilisation and storage or sequestration (CCUS), often shortened to carbon capture and storage (CCS), or just carbon capture.

The “U” component of CCUS can mean that the CO2 is used as a feedstock for another industrial process such as fertiliser or construction materials, while the “S” component involves permanently storing the carbon dioxide deep underground by injecting it into saline aquifers or spent oil and gas reservoirs.

For a long time, carbon capture technology was considered a lot like the proverbial blue cube, being unviable on technical, economic and regulatory levels.

The earliest carbon capture technology was used for enhanced oil recovery, meaning the CO2 was pumped into an oil field to help oil companies retrieve more oil from the ground.

It wasn’t until the 1980s that carbon capture technology was studied for climate mitigation efforts, but even then, it was mainly via isolated projects.

Even now, there are now only a few dozen CCS projects worldwide, capturing around 40 million tonnes of carbon dioxide a year – the equivalent of only a tenth of the UK’s annual emissions.

Indeed, the International Energy Agency, in questioning whether it will be able to play a major role in the transition to net zero by mid-century, has said carbon capture has so far “not lived up to its promise”.

The main problem thus far has been price. After all, it’s much cheaper to let carbon dioxide go up the smokestack into the atmosphere than to put a chemical plant on the back of the plant to remove it.

Traditionally, even the best carbon capture technology has been reliant on putting a high price on carbon, which provides an economic cost to releasing carbon dioxide pollution into the atmosphere.

Efficacy is also a factor, with most current technology capturing only around 90% of carbon emissions at the most. Many struggle to reach even those levels.

Getting carbon capture rates to 100%, or very close, is perhaps the only way to make carbon capture actually compatible with net zero, though that has long proved to be very expensive.

In fact, a recent report by Imperial College London suggested that the amount of carbon locked up by the technology since 1996 may have been overstated by up to 30%.

In short, it’s true to say that carbon capture projects have been beleaguered by setbacks over the years, both technical and economic.

But all this is starting to change.

Led by climate science that suggests we are moving ever closer to a point where emissions must peak and start to decline, global policymakers around the world are now pushing CCS as a tool to cut emissions.

With carbon prices now entering the realm in which the technology potentially pays off, carbon capture is increasingly seen as a potentially key tool that will help power generators and industrial plants accelerate decarbonisation.

No wonder, then, that global carbon capture capacity is projected to rise more than sixfold by the end of the decade, with the US, in particular, looking to dominate this growing industry.

But of all the firms in the growing industry, one game-changing start-up looks like it’s well ahead of the pack.

In the early stages of commercial deployment, the company looks like it has cracked the code of emission-free gas plants and is able to offer a low-cost, clean and reliable replacement for coal and natural gas-fired electricity stations.

The company’s name is NET Power (NYSE: NPWR) and it is our latest Small Cap Investigator recommendation.

The latest Small Cap Investigator recommendation: NET Power (NYSE: NPWR)

Put simply, NET Power (NYSE: NPWR), founded in 2010, has developed a breakthrough power generation technology that makes it easy to capture carbon dioxide released by the burning of natural gas.

It’s basically an entirely new form of power plant: an economical natural gas plant that doesn’t emit carbon.

To do this, NET Power uses a novel combustion cycle that captures its own emissions. Effectively, this means it has in-built CCS.

You see, unlike current plants, that burn natural gas in the air and produce pollutants like nitrogen oxides as well as CO2, NET Power’s method produces emissions of only CO2 and water.

The plants burn natural gas in pure oxygen, and the resulting high-pressure, liquefied CO2 spins turbines called turboexpanders to make electricity. When the turboexpander exhaust cools, water and by-products are removed.

The remaining carbon dioxide is then compressed and captured. The captured carbon dioxide can then be sold to industry or sequestered underground.

Effectively, the company’s oxy-combustion process technology combusts fossil gas in such a way that high-pressure CO2 emissions are sent straight into a pipeline to be pumped elsewhere for use or sequestration, alleviating the need for expensive and energetically intense carbon capture designs.

Oxy-combustion avoids the challenge of separating post-combustion CO2 from the air (nitrogen), by burning the fuel in an atmosphere of pure oxygen plus recirculated CO2 and water.

With costs modelled around 6-8c/kWh, the company believes that this process is the most cost-effective way to capture CO2 from gas power generation.

NET Power’s technology shows over ten years of progress, refining the design of efficient power generation cycles using CO2 as the working fluid. Importantly, it has built a moat around several aspects of the technology.

300 MW plant set to prove the tech works at scale

NET Power is now in the early stages of its commercial deployment, having already demonstrated its carbon capture technology in a 50 MW demonstration project in La Porte, Texas, delivering emission-free electricity to the state grid.

Now it is developing a 300-MW plant, called Project Permian, near Odessa, Texas, to prove that it works at scale. The company says it will come online between the second half of 2027 and the first half of 2028.

This will serve as a test case for broader deployment.

This first plant will be operated by oil and gas producer Occidental Petroleum (OXY), an anchor customer as well as an investor in NET Power, having invested at least $350 million in NET Power since it was founded.

The company plans to use Occidental Petroleum’s existing pipeline infrastructure to move trapped CO2 from the plant to a permanent storage location. NET Power’s plant will also provide power for Occidental Petroleum’s oil and gas operations.

NET Power will sell any excess generation into the local Electric Reliability Council of Texas electricity market.

In February 2022, NET Power also announced a partnership with Baker Hughes to develop and market supercritical CO2 turboexpanders, with the goal of accelerating other projects already in development.

Benefiting from carbon capture tax credits

NET Power is largely self-financing its first commercial project with help from its investors, though it does also plan to seek federal, state or local funding for the project.

For instance, in building this facility, NET Power will look to benefit from the array of federal grant and loan opportunities from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

But it is also a prime contender for the 45Q carbon capture tax credits included in the Inflation Reduction Act. NET Power is confident that it can beat the capture rate of 75% of CO2 emissions required to qualify for those credits.

The Inflation Reduction Act supports CCS by boosting 45Q federal tax credits for carbon that is captured and stored from $50 per tonne to $85 and roughly doubling the credit for carbon that is captured and used in oil fields or other industrial processes to $60 per tonne.

Because the company’s oxy-combustion process technology produces a pure stream of CO2 as part of its inherent design, this should allow the company to build new natural gas power plants above areas identified as especially amenable to CO2 storage, capturing the full $85 per tonne credit.

These carbon credits should make operating costs low. For its part, NET Power expects its plants to generate sufficient 45Q tax credits to offset nearly all natural gas fuel costs.

Certainly, if all this comes together, NET Power will be selling clean power to large industrial customers that want to lower their emissions from power procurement while monetising captured carbon through the 45Q credit.

That’s a recipe that should finally make carbon capture financially viable.

Strong balance sheet

Although NET Power may need more money to build its first few plants because its business model is centred around licensing its technology and collecting royalty revenue.

The company’s goal is to license 30 plants a year by 2030.

NET Power hasn’t provided financial guidance but has offered “illustrative” financials indicating that it could generate over $1 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) annually, five years after deploying the plants.

But these plants won’t be cheap to build. The company previously adjusted the cost of Project Permian to approximately $1 billion, up from an initial price tag of between $750 and $950 million.

This project will be financed through a combination of NET Power’s current capitalisation programme, investments from existing shareholders and new project financing.

But, as said above, NET Power is also pursuing government support available at the federal, state and local levels, with a special focus on grant and loan opportunities arising from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.

In its latest Q3 2023 results, NET Power reported a modest cash flow from operations of approximately $0.1 million for the quarter. The company’s investing activities resulted in a negative cash flow of approximately $103 million, primarily due to the investment of $100 million into short-term interest-bearing securities.

Capitalised expenditures for Project Permian totalled $2.5 million in Q3 2023, with initial long-lead equipment orders expected to be released in the first half of 2024.

As of the end of the third quarter, NET Power’s cash and short-term investments stood at approximately $645 million, down slightly from $649 million at the end of the previous quarter.

The company emerged with nearly $650 million in cash and no debt after it merged with Rice Acquisition II, a special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC), in June 2023, which is when it became a public company.

The SPAC was formed by Danny Rice, an entrepreneur, energy executive and member of the well-regarded energy-focused Rice family. Rice is now the CEO of NET Power.

Rice’s first SPAC merged with renewable fuel maker Archaea Energy in 2021 and was later bought by BP at more than 2.5 times the original SPAC price – potentially a good omen for NET Power.

The company remains debt-free to this day.

NET Power’s fully diluted share count is approximately 247 million shares, with various classes of common stock and warrants contributing to this total.

The float, however, is relatively small at 13 million shares, which could certainly contribute to upside volatility.

There are some notable risks to consider

Despite the strong balance sheet, this is an investment with some notable risks.

Firstly, please note that at this point NET Power is more of a concept company. It has minimal revenue and operates just one small demonstration plant in Texas, while its first utility-scale plant in Odessa, Texas, won’t be completed until 2027 or 2028.

Certainly, its technology is unproven on a large scale. Its plants, at about $900 million each, also cost significantly more to build than traditional gas plants.

There is a lot that can go wrong in getting this plant off the ground, which could negatively affect the share price.

In fact, earlier this month, the firm actually delayed the completion of Project Permian from 2026 because of challenges in the “global energy supply chain” – vendors that supply equipment and expertise to build the facility – that have caused “extensive lead times across critical components”.

Despite these delays, NET Power is optimistic about resolving supply chain bottlenecks by the time its second utility-scale plant is deployed.

Although the delay is certainly unfortunate, it is also prudent. In part based on Danny Rice’s track record, we have little doubt the plant will get built.

Secondly, remember, too, that years of power industry attempts to develop fossil-burning plants with conventional carbon capture have so far yielded little more than expensive failures.

There is no guarantee that NET Power won’t join some of these projects in the energy market graveyard. Certainly, any knockback with CCS as a whole could depress the entire landscape for the technology and hit NET Power’s share price.

CCS has long been seen as controversial, particularly by environmentalists who see it as a get-out-of-jail-free card that continues to enable fossil fuel producers and consumers to carry on extracting coal, gas and oil and burning it.

Certainly, any backlash against the industry could threaten the growth of the entire global carbon capture industry and, with it, push NET Power’s share price down.

A third risk pertains to competition, including from other technologies that could compete with CCS to fill the role of “clean, firm” power – essentially energy sources that can be called upon to deliver reliable power when solar or wind generation falters – needed to develop an affordable, decarbonised grid.

Competing technologies for CCS include hydropower and pumped hydroelectric storage, geothermal power, nuclear and long-duration energy storage.

NET Power also faces competition from within the carbon capture industry itself.

Indeed, the regulatory push in the US has catalysed several retrofit CCS projects, although right now none look as promising as NET Power.

There are also political risks to consider. The US presidential elections are next year and Donald Trump is currently leading in the polls. Although Trump supported CCS in his first term as president, US taxpayer-funded green energy subsidies are in the crosshairs if he wins and/or if the Republicans re-take the Senate, which is also possible. This might negatively impact the 45Q tax credits, which would certainly hit NET Power.

Lastly, note, too, that NET Power went public as a SPAC, a merging process that has been tainted by many disastrous deals. But, again, we think this shouldn’t matter too much, given the quality of NET Power’s merger partners and investors, which include Occidental Petroleum, Baker Hughes, Constellation and 8 Rivers.

Now is a good time to invest

It’s a risky bet, certainly, but one that looks potentially worth making.

Shares of NET Power fell from $13.30 to under $11 in the aftermath of the announcement of the delay to Project Permian in mid-November. Shares are trading at around $9.50 now, giving us a nice discount for a little extra risk.

Consider that analyst Paul Sankey of Sankey Research has set a 2030 price target on the stock of $100.

In calling NET Power an energy “NVDA,” a reference to chip maker Nvidia, Sankey said the firm was “a natural-gas-fired, steady-state emission-less provider of baseload power [that] could be a tailor-made solution to the growing challenges across the US power grid.”

We agree.

As said, we think NET Power might just have cracked the code for CO2-free gas plants.

A blue cube this is not.

As such, we recommend that you buy NET Power today.

Action to take: buy NET Power
Ticker: NYSE: NPWR
ISIN: US64107A1051
Current price (as of 30.11.23): $9.49
Market cap: $769 million
52-week high/low: 9.35 – 17.62
Buy up to: $11

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Big breakthroughs

Last week, I got into a WhatsApp argument with a friend. It was a simple argument: Is Die Hard a Christmas film or not?

I say it is. They say it is not. What do you think?

My friend made the point that Home Alone is a Christmas film (which I agree with) but not Die Hard. Rather than go deep into my rational and logical argument, I thought I’d settle this argument once and for all. So I jumped into my OpenAI account and asked ChatGPT to, “Give me a move poster for a cross over fictional film between Home Alone and Die Hard.”

I figured this way, we all win…

Needless to say, my friend was shocked.

She also couldn’t comprehend how I was able to create that so quickly and “so incredibly!”

But it was easy. As I said, I just jumped into ChatGPT and asked for it. That’s what I got (by the way, I did more – you can check out my thread of them here).

That’s how easy using AI tools has become. You jump onto your artificial intelligence (AI) platform, and then just ask for what you want.

Now, it should be said that what you see above isn’t perfect. It’s good, arguably great, but far from a polished, finished movie poster. The text is weird and the image in places is weird too. You know clearly what’s going on, your own human intelligence helps with that, and if you had the time, you’d fix it up so that it was perfect. But in terms of taking the natural language input and crunching the data to produce a very good outcome at break-neck speed… well, AI is perfect for such jobs.

And that’s why the power of AI is so much greater than creating funny and unlikely cross-over movie images. The real power and potential of AI is when you combine its “smart” technology and raw power with the intelligence and ingenuity of humanity – particularly in financial markets.

In my view, it’s this augmentation of man and machine intelligence that has the potential for perfection. And when you apply that to financial markets, in my view, you hold an immensely powerful weapon in your hands.

AI in financial markets isn’t new. In fact, this has been a long-term evolution, shifting from fundamental computations to sophisticated machine learning and AI algorithms.

And over time, it has changed how financial markets work and the decision-making processes of investors. What’s different now is that anyone has access to AI tools for their investments.

Previously, it was the remit of multi-billion-dollar hedge funds and investment firms.

But in today’s volatile, ever-hanging markets, embracing AI technology is now a fundamental necessity for investors striving to gain a competitive edge and achieve success.

In its earliest iterations, AI’s role in finance was limited to basic data analysis and the automation of rudimentary tasks. Financial institutions leveraged early forms of AI to streamline operations and improve efficiency in data handling.

As technology advanced, AI began to assume a more central role in the sector. The late 20th century witnessed a critical shift with the introduction of algorithmic trading. This development marked a new era where trades could be executed at unprecedented speeds and volumes, driven by complex, AI-powered algorithms. This era saw the birth of quantitative finance, where mathematical models were employed to predict market behaviour and inform trading decisions.

The 21st century brought further advancements with the advent of machine learning and predictive analytics. These technologies enabled financial analysts and hedge fund investors to forecast market trends and movements with greater accuracy and confidence. Machine learning algorithms, capable of learning from and making predictions based on large datasets, became pivotal in identifying investment opportunities and managing risks.

But this was always out of reach for the individual. Not anymore.

You may have seen through the Southbank Research network that we’ve recently broadcast an event we called the AI Advantage Workshop.

It was here that we spoke about these developments and how we’ve reached an inflection point where AI and human ingenuity meet – a convergence of intelligence, man and machine, not man vs machine.

It’s this convergence that puts AI tools for investment in our hands now, finally after decades of innovation, development and progress. And that’s why we’re launching a new advisory where we take the best of human intelligence and combine it with artificial intelligence to give us a Predictive Edge in the market.

I’m excited for what AI will deliver to individual investors like you and me now that we have these tools at our fingertips.

And looking further down the track, I believe we’ll see better outcomes for investors as we see AI creep into various financial industries, from individual investment to wealth management, portfolio strategies, insurance, borrowing and lending and just about anything else you can think of where finance and AI can intersect.

The AI boom might feel like it’s all about the creative arts right now, but the real opportunity, I think, will come as AI and finance converge and deliver huge outcomes for investors.

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Buy List update

Ashtead Technology Holdings PLC (AIM: AT)

Subsea equipment rental company Ashtead Technology Holdings, recommended at 374p in the July issue of Small Cap Investigator, has risen around 18% over the last month to trade at 565.60p at the time of writing, putting it 51% up in the model portfolio.

Ashtead has a history supplying subsea services to the oil and gas sector but has diversified into the fast-growing offshore wind market.

The stock jumped as high as 586p on Thursday 30 November after the company announced it had expanded its mechanical solutions service offering with the acquisition of ACE Winches.

ACE Winches offers support in the installation, inspection, maintenance and repair and decommissioning of offshore energy infrastructure – making it highly complementary to Ashtead Technology’s existing equipment and services portfolio.

ACE Winches is Ashtead Technology’s eighth acquisition in the last six years and follows the group’s acquisitions of Aberdeenshire-based businesses, WeSubsea and Hiretech, in 2022.

ACE Winches has its global headquarters in Turriff, Aberdeenshire, a site that will be a key operational facility for Ashtead Technology with plans for continued investment and expansion to support ongoing growth.

The stock remains a HOLD while it trades above 395p.

European Metals Holdings (AIM: EMH)

At the time of writing, European Metals Holdings is trading around 30.10p, 10% down in the model portfolio, with the stock falling 4% over the last month.

All lithium stocks continue to suffer amid continued price weakness in the price of lithium. After hitting an all-time high of CNY 595,000 per tonne ($81,360 per tonne) in November 2022, lithium carbonate prices in China have now cratered to the worst level in two years at CNY 151,500 per tonne ($20,782 per tonne).

Concerns over looming supply coming online from China, Australia and Chile is overshadowing healthy demand, pressuring prices.

However, according to Morningstar, the market has priced in an unrealistic scenario wherein lithium prices fall to $15,000 per metric tonne in 2026, well below the marginal cost of production of $20,000 on an all-in sustaining cost basis. Morningstar has advised investors to use the deep selloff to build fresh positions in lithium stocks.

As for European Metals, its Cinovec lithium project in the Czech Republic is set to be a significant pure lithium producer in the EU – a region where there is little domestic raw material production and a region with a huge demand as it battles to achieve a carbon-neutral future.

On 9 November, the company reported favourable outcomes from ongoing test work, notably producing high-purity battery-grade lithium carbonate. Executive chairman Keith Coughlan said the company is still determining the final product, with a noticeable market shift in Europe from lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate on account of increasing demand for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, for which carbonate is preferred.

Amid these developments, Coughlan affirmed that the definitive feasibility study (DFS) is on schedule for release by year-end. The Cinovec project, which has significant support from the Czech government and has been deemed strategic by the EU, bolstered by a €50 million grant, is anticipated to receive continued financial and legislative backing.

Certainly, the company remains optimistic about the project’s progress and the forthcoming final investment decision, underscored by the project’s importance to the EU’s lithium production ambitions.

Nestled on the Czech-German border, Cinovec – which has a 25-year life – is located on the doorstep of some of Europe’s biggest automakers and chemical producers.

Cinovec is being developed by Geomet, a 51/49% joint venture between state-owned CEZ and EMH.

The stock remains a BUY below its 45p buy limit.

Central Asia Metals (AIM: CAML)

Central Asia Metals (AIM: CAML), a mining company with operations in Kazakhstan and North Macedonia, has risen 3% over the last month to 169.40p at the time of writing, still leaving it 39% underwater in the model portfolio.

The group’s principal business activities are the production of copper at its Kounrad operations in Kazakhstan and the production of lead, zinc and silver at its Sasa operations in North Macedonia.

Amid a lack of news, the stock continues to take direction from a copper market, where prices have risen to their highest in nearly two months amid growing hopes of fresh stimulus and demand in China, a softer dollar and protests at a mine in Panama.

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) touched US$8,355 on 20 November, its highest price since 29 September.

Hopes for stronger copper consumption were raised by a pledge from China’s central bank to ensure financing support for the property sector, a major consumer of industrial metals.

Supply concerns come from reduced ore processing owing to protests at First Quantum Minerals’ Cobre Panama mine, which accounts for 1% of global copper output.

A weaker US currency, meanwhile, makes dollar-priced metals cheaper for holders of other currencies.

With CAML proceeding well operationally, the stock remains a BUY under 310p.

Foresight Sustainable Forestry Company (LON: FSF)

Foresight Sustainable Forestry Company (FSF), which invests in UK forestry and afforestation assets, has fallen 12% over the last month to 63.96p at the time of writing, putting it around 42% down in the portfolio.

In an update on progress over the six months ended 30 September 2023, the board of the investment company said that it was “disappointed” to see the share price trade at a discount to NAV. Together with the investment manager it says that it is:

  • Reviewing planting and harvesting timetables to optimise cash flows
  • Advancing non-core asset disposals, including various residential properties attached to existing afforestation assets
  • Maximising allocation to afforestation and voluntary carbon where possible
  • Positioning the company for rapid growth when equity market conditions improve.

Talking about the market for forestry assets, it says:

  • Increasing inflation and interest rates have led to a weakening of the forestry and planting land investment market over the last six months, characterised by a higher proportion of distressed vendors of non-prime forestry and afforestation properties
  • Lower prices have been paid across a relatively small transaction volume (the value of UK forestry assets sold in the first nine months of 2023 represents 12% of the annual average of the value of assets sold in 2021 and 2022)
  • Established forestry and voluntary carbon credit prices have both been more resilient versus afforestation land values.

Although the performance has been poor, we’re willing to give FSF more time.

Remember, there is a global shortage of sustainably sourced timber. Current World Bank data shows that there is a base of billion cubic metres of global timber supply deficit, with the numbers expected to triple by 2050.

Meanwhile, the forestry situation in the UK is particularly poor, with only 13% of the country forested compared to an average of 45-48% across the rest of Europe.

Through expansive afforestation projects and sustainable timber production, FSF – the only forestry and natural resource fund on the London Stock Exchange – is tackling the global long-term structural supply imbalance of timber, as well as bolstering the UK’s timber supply.

Since its initial public offering (IPO) two years ago, FSF has already invested in over 1.5 million trees at six new forests, which adds up to around 289,500 tonnes of sustainable timber for sale, while it also plans on planting circa 9 million trees between 2023 and 2025.

In addition to timber, FSF is on track to produce 1 million carbon credits that are produced when trees are planted, removing carbon from the atmosphere. Demand for carbon credits is predicted to increase a hundredfold by 2050.

FSF remains a BUY under 150p.

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech UCITS ETF (LON: LITG)

Global X Lithium & Battery Tech UCITS ETF (LITG) has dipped 2% month on month at around ££6.72 at the time of writing, 25% below our £8.96 entry price.

The ETF invests in the full lithium cycle, from mining and refining the metal through battery production. Some of its top holdings include Albemarle, Panasonic, BYD Co., Tesla, Livent Corp., Piedmont Lithium and Standard Lithium.

LITG certainly provides asset diversification across different parts of the lithium supply chain, which can provide cushioning against lithium price volatility. For example, if prices fall, that’s a negative for producers but a positive for companies that buy lithium to make value-added products.

By owning mining, refinery and battery production companies in the fund, Global X has its fingers in multiple parts of the lithium industry.

It should certainly benefit from heavy demand for lithium. After all, without lithium, we can’t build EVs or have the green future that countries are demanding.

LITG looks considerably oversold. As such, it remains a BUY.

Newmont Corporation (NYSE: NEM)

At the time of writing, Newmont Corporation, the world’s largest gold miner, was trading at $40.38, up 8% on the month. The stock is now 38% below our $65.39 entry point.

But the good news is that Newmont has now concluded the AU$26.2 billion takeover of Newcrest Mining, leading to the formation of what it claims to be the globe’s leading gold miner.

The merged entity will also have a “robust” production of copper, stated Newmont.

In October, Newcrest Mining’s shareholders approved the acquisition with 92.63% of the votes cast favouring the deal.

The transaction became legally effective on 18 October, followed by the delisting of Newcrest from the Australian Stock Exchange, Papua New Guinea National Stock Exchange and Toronto Stock Exchange on 26 October.

Newmont has issued a total of 357.6 million of its new shares to shareholders of Newcrest Mining, under the deal.

The miner claims that the combined group will have a portfolio comprising more than half of the world’s tier-one assets with long-life operations and ample exploration prospects, as well as value-accretive projects.

The acquisition adds five active mines and two advanced projects to Newmont’s portfolio.

Following the acquisition, Newmont plans to raise $2 billion in cash through mine sales and project divestments of Australia’s Newcrest Mining.

Newmont CEO Tom Palmer told Bloomberg that the merged company can now initiate a process to sell mines and determine which exploration projects to prioritise over the next two years.

Positive signals also come from the gold market, where prices have been on a tear in recent sessions, rising to a six-month-high above $2,000 an ounce this week as the prospect of a pause in the US Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycle pointed to easing pressure on the yellow metal.

The move took the precious metal’s gains since hitting a seven-month low at the start of October to just over 10%, and left it around 3% below its all-time high reached in August 2020.

The outlook for potentially lower interest rates bodes well for gold, given that it makes returns on the yellow metal appear more attractive.

Newmont remains a BUY under $100.

DS Smith (LON: SMDS)

Recycled-content paperboard and packaging producer DS Smith has risen 2% over the last month to 290.60p at the time of writing, now around 8% below our entry price.

The company has unveiled a major investment of €75 million to transform its paper mill’s energy supply in Normandy, France, supported by local authorities and a €15 million subsidy from the French government.

Ahead of the chancellor’s Autumn Statement, CEO Miles Roberts has called on the UK government to provide clear indications on long-term energy strategies for businesses to allow for investments like DS Smith’s spend in France.

The stock remains a BUY though we continue to watch market dynamics closely.

Kraneshares MSCI China Clean Technology Index UCITS ETF (LON: KGRN)

Kraneshares MSCI China Clean Technology Index UCITS ETF (KGRN), recommended at $24.83 on 12 October, the day it listed on the LSE, was last seen at $23.61, putting it 5% down in the model portfolio.

KGRN is the only UK-listed ETF to specifically tap into China’s cleantech industries. The Chinese government wants to increase green energy to 35% of consumed power by 2030.

The 50-plus stocks in its portfolio include companies involved in sustainable water, green building, pollution prevention and energy efficiency.

Aside from companies involved in renewable energy generation and its components, KGRN’s holdings include companies running data centres powered by renewable energy, electric vehicle manufacturers; waste management and clean water solutions providers; and real estate companies implementing sustainable practices and technologies.

Companies associated with EVs dominate the fund’s top holdings. The largest three are Li Auto, an electric vehicle company; BYD Company, which provides environmentally friendly products like electric vehicles and solar panels; and Contemporary Amperex Technology, a manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries and other energy storage solutions.

KGRN tracks the MSCI China IMI Environment 10/40 Index.

The ETF is now available from a slew of online brokers, including AJ Bell and IG (though not yet Interactive Investor or Hargreaves Lansdown).

The ETF is a BUY below $26.83.

Cyngn (NASDAQ: CYN)

Cyngn Inc, our first real move into US stocks with an AI focus, recently reported its financial results for the third quarter ending 30 September 2023.

Some of the highlights from the quarter highlighted in the announcement include:

  • Opening up a dealer network to expand its customer base
  • Unveiling the DriveMod Tugger, an autonomous electric tugger
  • Pre-orders for 100 DriveMod Forklifts, with an initial rollout planned in South Carolina in mid-2024
  • Cyngn’s patent portfolio expanded, with 16 US patents granted and additional patents pending both in the US and internationally during the quarter.

But the market wasn’t a big fan of the slender financial position the company has, which we discussed in our recommendation. The net loss for the quarter was $5.5 million, slightly higher than the $5.3 million loss in the same quarter of 2022.

Furthermore, at the end of the third quarter of 2023, Cyngn had cash and short-term investments of $8.2 million, a decrease from $22.6 million at the end of 2022. This was the thing that sent the stock lower after the earnings announcement.

There is a strong possibility that the company will look to do a capital raise in the near future. However, it is bringing in substantial revenues, plus it continues with the development and rollout of its technology.

While the financial state is precarious, the technology play here is robust. If the company can capitalise on that tech, with some of the big players it’s working with, then the upside for Cyngn remains very strong.

IOTA (IOTA/USD)

Just this week IOTA launched a $100 million foundation in Abu Dhabi to accelerate the adoption and growth of IOTA in the Middle East. It’s specifically taking aim at the tokenisation of real-world assets (RWAs).

The news saw the IOTA token price shoot higher up over 50% in 24-hour trading. The token is now trading over $0.23 and is close to our entry price of $0.28. IOTA is an anomaly in our Buy List as it’s a legacy recommendation from back in 2019 and is not really a small cap or even a stock. However, we expect a new crypto bull market to eventuate in 2024. Given this recent action, IOTA may very well explode higher again from here.

At this point, we keep IOTA in the Buy List, but as it is now near the entry point and given the fact this isn’t a crypto service, we’re moving the IOTA position to a HOLD.

Velocys (LON: VLS)

Velocys is facing a challenging financial situation. On 20 November 2023, the company reported receiving a non-binding indicative all-cash takeover offer from a consortium led by Lightrock LLP and Carbon Direct Capital Management LLC.

This offer is part of ongoing discussions for potential investments as the company seeks to keep itself afloat.

The proposed takeover offer values Velocys’s share capital at around £4.1 million (0.25GBp per share), which is substantially lower than its current share price. As a result of these uncertainties, Velocys’s shares plummeted 61% to 0.27 pence each.

The company is exploring various measures to extend its financial runway. It acknowledges the risk of not being able to continue as a going concern beyond the end of 2023 without securing short-term funding or implementing significant strategic options.

The problem here is that the board is likely to accept this, otherwise there will be no value in the company if it can’t get any more funding. Hence the low-ball offer.

At the time of writing, the stock is trading at 0.23GBp, below the offer. Right now there’s been no decision on the offer. And there’s a good chance that it won’t get much better than that.

At this stage, even though Velocys has incredibly important technology, and the desire for sustainable aviation fuels is growing, the company itself is failing.

It looks unlikely from here that it will survive long term, and capital is not willingly coming forward. Someone’s going to get a bargain buy here, but it appears that once again it’s not shareholders.

At this point, we have no other choice but to exit the stock, as the next outcome is likely zero value.

Action to take: SELL Velocys.

Rockfire Resources (LON: ROCK)

Rockfire Resources had been lining up the acquisition of Emirates Gold DMCC and Emperesse Bullion LLC. We noted this in our last monthly update.

While not the main reason for our investment in Rockfire, these additional developments would be a bonus to the germanium and gallium deposits contained at Molaoi.

But this also means these other aspects of the company can drive the stock price higher but also lower.

On 8 November the UK government imposed sanctions on 28 entities – one of those being Paloma Precious DMCC with which Rockfire was going to complete the reverse takeover of Emperesse and Emirates with.

As a result of these sanctions, Rockfire consulted its legal team and it was decided to withdraw from the acquisition of Emirates Gold and Emperesse.

This news hit the stock price hard, seeing it head south to 0.20GBp. The good news is that the stock has rebounded from that hit. It is around 0.23GBp right now, only about 8% down from our initial entry.

Our fundamental investment case here is around the company’s germanium and gallium deposits, of which we expect further results from the Molaoi drilling soon. As such, this is the kind of volatility we’ve expected, but our investment idea here remains robust.

We stay in the stock and expect positive momentum as more results from Molaoi come through.

Surface Transforms (LON: SCE)

Surface Transforms, the carbon ceramic disc manufacturer, recently announced a share placement and fundraising to add extra working capital to the company’s balance sheet.

We still see there being a significant market opportunity for the company. It has long stand contracts with OEMs and continues to build a strong, long pipeline of revenues. The company still expects to target an annual revenue run rate of £250 million by 2030.

While that’s some way away, it shows there’s still a lot of upside for the company. As such, its proposed fundraising will offer a 1 for 12.08666165 basis of stock for qualifying shareholders. We think that if you qualify for the offer, you should take it up to avoid further dilution of your holdings.

However, you should contact your broker to see if you qualify and check if the offer is open to you. Deadlines and dates for the offer can be found via Surface Transform’s site and the announcement here.

.

Inside the lives of James and Sam

James:

James Allen

I always like to chat to cab drivers when I’m overseas, figuring you can get a native perspective or opinion on a local issue that guidebooks and online reviews rarely provide.

During a recent holiday in Cyprus, I found myself engaged in one such conversation with a local taxi driver, a discussion that unfolded into an interesting insight into the island’s developing solar market.

Late last month, you see, my family and I joined thousands of British holidaymakers looking to escape the increasing gloom at home for some half-term holiday sunshine. Cyprus, one of the most southerly islands in the Med, seemed a pretty safe bet for some good weather.

The country is one of the sunniest places on the planet, with clear skies 320 days a year. It certainly lived up to its billing during our week in an all-inclusive resort in Limassol where clouds made only the very briefest of appearances over the week.

This was actually my first visit to Cyprus, though in truth it felt like we could have been almost anywhere because we spent most of our week firmly ensconced within the boundaries of the resort.

We went there, of course, for the sun and it was the sun that formed the backbone of a conversation I had with an impressively knowledgeable local taxi driver on our one and only daytime excursion.

Sat up top with the driver, on the way to the local harbour where we had a boat trip organised for the day, I couldn’t help but pass comment on the prevalence of solar panels mounted on many of the rooftops we passed.

The taxi driver, who had just told us he had actually spent 15 years living in London before returning to his native country seven years ago, explained that Cyprus had seen a surge in rooftop solar installations in recent years after “electricity costs went crazy”.

Electricity bills were expensive and even comparable to the UK, the driver told me. This was because most of the island’s electricity was still produced by burning imported heavy oil at its three thermal power stations, while a lack of competition in the retail market meant there was still only one incumbent utility to choose from, he said.

Solar panels were used not just for electricity but also used in homes to heat water, he added.

But the driver said country still had a long way to go to take advantage of one of its main natural resources – the sun. With no interconnections with other countries or any storage systems installed anywhere on the island, Cyprus sometimes had too much solar power than it could handle, forcing the grid operator to turn off solar energy to keep the grid in balance.

“We have so much sun in Cyprus that we don’t know what to do with it, literally,” the driver joked.

But without a nearby national power network that can bail Cyprus out in an emergency, the grid kept the oil generators running on low at all times, no matter the weather, he added.

“Everyone here likes to sleep with their AC on but solar doesn’t work during the night, so we can’t rely on it fully just yet, even though everyone here sees that solar is our future.”

Sunny Cyprus

Sam:

Sam Volkering

It’s been a hectic month for me to say the least.

It all started though with a trip to the “big box” sports and outdoor retailer, Decathlon.

Decathlon is one of those stores that everyone knows, but no one really knows. By that I mean that it’s the largest sporting goods retailer, in the world.

But if I asked ten people who owns it, I bet none of them could tell me.

It’s a French billionaire, Michel Leclercq. He made his billions from Decathlon. Founded in 1976, it’s the go-to place for anything outdoors and sports related.

The shame of it is that Decathlon is private. Leclercq still owns 40%, but unfortunately it’s not something you can go and invest in.

So, when I rolled in there earlier this month to spend a few hundred euros, none of it was going to a company I could hold in my investment account.

Nonetheless, I was going there to buy a padel racket and some padel shoes. While I might have been in the biggest sports retailer in the world, I was also going to get some gear so I could join the fastest growing sport in the world, padel.

Now I’m a beginner, but if I’m going to play something, I’m going to commit. I’m going to ensure I’ve got the right gear so I can fully enjoy it. I now have a pair of Asics padel shoes in the bag and my (new) pride and joy, my Bullpadel racket.

You might note that I opted for the “Power” series. This is because that’s what I’m going to bring to the court… POWER!

I’ve got a sneaky feeling that you’re going to be hearing a lot more about padel in the UK very soon. You’ll see more apparel and equipment appearing in places like Decathlon, see it appear on the telly and start to see the bright blue padel courts popping up around at local tennis, squash and sports centres.

Getting ahead of major trends is what I like to do, specially from an investment perspective. Occasionally I like to get ahead of non-investment trends too – and I reckon this is one that’s going to be big.

.

Crypto Corner

Sam:

How institutional money comes to DeFi

In the crypto markets one of the fundamental actions you need to get to grips with is the buying and selling of crypto.

Thanks to the unwillingness of banks to always play friendly with crypto exchanges, this can sometimes get tricky.

It’s not always as simple as just sending cash to a brokerage account and hitting the buy button as you would if you were buying stocks on Hargreaves Lansdown or Barclays.

Whether your bank allows you to move money from your account to a crypto exchange is not something I can help with I’m afraid. I get regular comments from people that say their bank has blocked them or isn’t allowing transfers.

Sometimes these blocks are from banks that I know other people have no problems with. It seems that the playing field is not level for everyone. But that’s the traditional financial system (TradFi) for you; it never was or will be a level playing field.

Which is why we’re so staunchly optimistic about what crypto can provide – while it’s not perfect, it at least does a better job of levelling the playing field than TradFi ever has.

However, there are aspects of the crypto world that are closely aligned with TradFi. That’s not a bad thing, but it’s not a good thing either – it’s a “meh” thing.

One of the things that flies close to the world of TradFi is the role of exchanges in crypto. As I said earlier, they enable one of the most fundamental aspects of crypto: buying and selling.

Without the exchange, getting money from TradFi into crypto gets considerably harder. Over the years crypto exchanges have had a tumultuous relationship with the market, customers and regulators.

That seems to be coming to a head right now in a billion different ways.

The biggest development in the last month has been the troubles of major exchanges in the US. Most notably the gargantuan anti-money laundering fine lumped on Binance in a settlement with the US Department of Justice (DoJ).

A staggering $3.4 billion fine was put in place by the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) and an additional $968 million from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). The final bill comes to a blistering $4.368 billion. Then add to this that the CEO of Binance, Changpeng Zhao (commonly known as CZ), was forced to step down and personally pay a $50 million fine.

Binance will also completely exit from the US. Make no mistake, this is the US regulator “clearing house” before TradFi properly gets into bed with the crypto markets.

You see, Binance, love them or hate them, pushed too far in the US. The regulators decided enough is enough. Whether you agree with the way the DoJ went about it or whether Binance did anything wrong or not is somewhat moot now.

The point is, Binance is losing access to the US, and the US doesn’t really want it there anyway. What the US regulators want is a tidy shop for the likes of BlackRock, Fidelity, Invesco, WisdomTree and others to operate in.

By “tidy shop” we mean a regulatory environment where control and oversight is paramount. While Binance’s fine and punishment was a clear target, this just paves the way even more for the impending spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the US.

Now if those ETFs are approved, which at this point seems like an almost certainty in early 2024, that won’t be the start and end of it.

As we’ve seen in Europe, where there’s a bitcoin ETF (or ETF, ETC, etc), then an Ethereum one is typically hot on its heels. 21Shares did it that way. CoinShares did it that way too.

We also know that in the US, BlackRock has already provisionally filed for an Ethereum ETF. Hence the expectation that this will unlock a large capital flow into the crypto markets as these spot ETFs come alive.

Further to this, because the DoJ has cleared house with Binance, this paves the way for a handful of beneficiaries to step into that void. Notably the likes of Coinbase, which now appears to be on stable footing in the US, may benefit most.

Coinbase is the named custodian of the impending ETFs. It’s pretty chummy with BlackRock (and others) it seems. That’s good, because we think that Coinbase may then play a pivotal role in the flow of capital from institutions into decentralised finance protocols.

Coinbase now has an Ethereum layer 2 network, known as Base. This Base network now links to DeFi protocols like Aave, Compound, LidoDAO and more recently the 1inch decentralised exchange.

The point is you’ve got big institutional money that’s keen on DeFi, now with a stable, regulatory friendly pathway (Coinbase) into it. The bitcoin ETFs are the first step, then we’d expect Ethereum ETFs as the second step. From there we think that institutional money will be coming for the DeFi protocols too, through the Base network.

This all points to 2024 being a big year for crypto and for crypto investors. It’s insto money flowing into crypto, which might spark the next big bull market. And if that plays out, the expectation is that it blows the roof off the market returns we saw in all previous cycles.

.

What else we’ve been looking at this month

James:

This is a masterful report on the bull case in uranium

If you’ve heard about the surge in uranium prices but you’re unsure what’s behind it, then you could do worse than read this masterful report by Goehring & Rozencwajg. In this deep-dive research report, the analysts clearly present the evidence to support their prophecy of “a sustained and frenetic bull market”. The bold conclusion that the “cumulative deficit between 2023 and 2030 will likely exceed 250 mm lbs, completely depleting all commercial stockpiles” says all you need to know as to why “uranium has likely reached a pivotal inflection point that could force the price higher by as much as three- to four-fold over the next several years.” It’s becoming increasing clear that uranium marks a once-in-a-generation investing opportunity that’s now being offered up to patient long-term investors and this report is required reading for anyone interested in participating in the market.

The good and bad news of climate tech investment trends

Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. Global investment in climate tech startups fell by 40.5% in the 12 months to September, a slump driven by continuing economic uncertainty and geopolitical conflict. The drop has taken funding back to the level of five years ago. And the good news? Well, if the decline in climate tech investment was bad, it was actually significantly smaller than the 50% average fall across all sectors. The data is from a recent report released by accounting giant PricewaterhouseCoopers. It’s a good read (if you’re into this type of thing). One nugget from the report that stuck out to me is that there is still a huge misallocation of capital between the sectors with the most emissions and the funded solutions. For instance, buildings plus industry account for 51% of emissions but only 19% of funding, while the mobility sector accounts for 15% of emissions but 45% of funding.

Debunking 21 myths about EVS

Electric vehicles (EVs) are “likely crucial” for tackling transport CO2, says the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Meanwhile, EV sales are rocketing, accounting for one in every seven cars sold globally in 2022 – up from one-in-70 just five years earlier. Yet EVs are being subjected to relentless hostile reporting across mainstream media in many major economies, including the UK. So, I enjoyed reading this article from Carbon Brief debunking 21 – yes, 21 – of the most common EV myths.

Sam:

UK investment funds to tokenise assets

The idea of tokenising assets is not new to me. But to see it now slowly but surely gathering momentum is promising to see. The idea of an extensive report on the “blueprint” towards tokenisation is a very promising outcome for the entire digital assets space. Here the Investment Association provides its report: “UK Fund Tokenisation: A blueprint for implementation.”

Get on the Pika waitlist

New AI tools are popping up everywhere at the moment. I try to keep track of as many as possible over at my free AI-focused Substack, AI Collision (you can subscribe to that for free, here). But this one I had to share. It’s called Pika and it’s a text to video (or as it puts it, “idea to video”) platform that could be the most amazing AI creative tool I’ve seen yet. You can get on its waitlist by heading to the site and popping down your email. I’ve already done it. The video on that page showing what you can do is worth the visit alone.

Who’s the real brains behind OpenAI?

Sam Altman often gets the credit as the brains behind OpenAI and everything it’s done to change the world (already). But there’s someone else that doesn’t quite get the same media attention but arguably is even more important to OpenAI than Altman. So much so, that it’s believed he was the driving force behind Altman getting sacked by the board recently. Here’s a great long-form piece on Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s chief scientist.

James Allen and Sam Volkering
Editors, Small Cap Investigator

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